PPI collapsing, almost 60% of CPI elements in deflation, retail gross sales trending unfavourable. Revenue Recession simply getting began with 34 firms reporting

Non existent credibility trigger the Fed is once more out of synch with the market and the info.
Yields dropping as a brand new Fed coverage error of staying too excessive too lengthy would kill any smooth touchdown narrative.
Powell’s obtained some explaining to do. pic.twitter.com/GVsDvjIqab

— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) January 18, 2023

U.S PPI (MOM) (DEC) ACTUAL: -0.5% VS 0.3% PREVIOUS; EST -0.1%

U.S PPI (YOY) (DEC) ACTUAL: 6.2% VS 7.4% PREVIOUS; EST 6.8%

U.S CORE PPI (MOM) (DEC) ACTUAL: 0.1% VS 0.4% PREIVOUS; EST 0.1%

U.S CORE PPI (YOY) (DEC) ACTUAL: 5.5% VS 6.2% PREVIOUS; EST 5.7%

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) January 18, 2023

EPS: Revenue Recession simply getting began with 34 firms reporting -6.7% to this point… pic.twitter.com/avwLikubBr

— Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) January 18, 2023

The Empire State survey laid one other egg, coming in at 32.9 for January. That is akin to the outdated readings from the World Monetary Disaster.

With the S&P 500 buying and selling at 4,000, the Avenue anticipates that its earnings will rise from $200 in 2022 to $225 in 2023.

I disagree. pic.twitter.com/In7rCrlECQ

— Jeff Weniger (@JeffWeniger) January 17, 2023

If Empire new orders index is any indication of the place ISM new orders will come on Feb. 1st, and there actually seems to be a correlation, it should be ugly. -31.1 is the third worst month-to-month quantity because the survey was created in 2001. pic.twitter.com/2T15Bq0CYR

— Randy Woodward (@TheBondFreak) January 17, 2023

The 10Y is consolidating earlier than its remaining transfer upward to five%. This would be the remaining nail within the coffin for this market. I count on the S&P 500 to plunge to 2000, the Russell 2000 to drop to 1000, and the Nasdaq 100 to fall to 6500.

— HOZ (@MFHoz) January 17, 2023

Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich believes the Federal Reserve’s charge hikes will not be working and mentioned the central financial institution ought to cease believing it might simply cease profit-price inflation by mountain climbing rates of interest.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) January 18, 2023

Are you able to hear me now, Jerome? pic.twitter.com/J5DWzidcWR

— Danielle DiMartino Sales space (@DiMartinoBooth) January 18, 2023

Table of Contents

‘Soft Landing’ Narrative Nuked As US Industrial Production Plunges In December And New York Biz Leaders Survey Crashes To -21.4 (US Treasury 10Y Yield Drops -14.1 Basis Points)

Smooth touchdown for the US economic system? It’s trying much less and fewer possible. The bond market (10-year Treasury yield) simply shed -14.1 foundation factors. As I at all times advised my investments college students, any 10 foundation level shift within the 10-year Treasury yield is important.

Let’s begin wit the US enterprise leaders survey of present situations. It simply crashed to -21.4

Then we’ve got US industrial manufacturing, down -0.7% in December. And is up just one.65% year-over-year as M2 Cash progress stalls.